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What started as a rumor is little by little being shaped into a full worry by the credit market. Nvidia’s credit default swaps just told a different story than its earnings ever have. On Monday, NVDA fell nearly 5% to close at $196.51, but the more telling number was in the credit market, not the equity market. The cost of insuring Nvidia’s debt against default posted its biggest single-day jump since CDS contracts on the company began actively trading. That’s notable for one

Take a look at the chart below. It shows most developed economies M2, rebased at the beggining of 2004. As you can see, those economies have printed money like there is no tomorrow. Japan, by a wide margin, has printed the least. If “money supply growth debases a currency” were a clean, standalone rule, the yen should be the strongest G7 currency over this period. USD/JPY just hit 163.79, up 7.4% over the past six months alone, and near 2-year highs. The yen has been one of t

This week’s Fed meeting is one of the more interesting ones in a while, not because a rate move is likely, but because of the mixed signals policymakers are sitting with. The FOMC meets Tuesday and Wednesday (July 28–29), with the decision landing Wednesday at 2pm ET. This isn’t a “dot plot” meeting, so no fresh economic projections. Just the statement and Chair Warsh’s press conference. But that doesn’t mean it’s uneventful. Here’s the tension shaping the discussion: (1) Oi

The AI capex bill is coming due, and the market hasn’t fully priced it in. For instance, Google just reported its first quarter of negative free cash flow in the company’s history. Two decades of steadily climbing FCF, wiped out in a single quarter, the direct result of the scale of data center and AI infrastructure spend. You can see that in the bottom chart below. It’s not just Google. BofA’s aggregate hyperscaler FCF forecasts have been revised down sharply and repeatedly,

The U.S.-Iran conflict has moved well past the “limited strikes” phase, and it’s now tangled up with domestic politics in ways worth understanding before the November Mid Terms. First, the military options: the White House has been weighing a range of options beyond the current nightly strike campaign: seizing Kharg Island (the hub for 90% of Iran’s oil exports), bombing underground facilities tied to Iran’s nuclear program, and further degrading Iran’s grip on the Strait of

For most of this year, two lines moved almost in lockstep: the cost of running AI inference (token expenditure) and hyperscaler stock performance. It does makes sense; more AI demand meant more spend, more spend meant more revenue for the cloud giants selling the compute. From late February through May, both climbed together. Token costs nearly doubled, and hyperscalers rode the wave right along with them. AI demand was the story, and the market rewarded it. Then, something s

Recessions are becoming rarer and shorter. If you look at the table below, you can see the numbers. The pattern shows up just as clearly when you flip the lens to individuals. Someone born in January 1900 spent nearly 43% of their first 40 years living through a recession. Someone born in the mid-1980s? Under 8%. What has changed? (1) Central banks got more tools, and got faster with them. Modern monetary policy (rate cuts, forward guidance, and since 2008, large-scale asset

The Japanese Yen just broke above 163 vs the U.S. dollar, a level the pair hasn’t traded at since 1986, and the technical breakout matters as much as the macro forces feeding it. Two forces are colliding: (1) The rate differential. BOJ’s policy rate sits at 1.00% (highest since 1995) vs. the Fed’s 3.50–3.75%. A ~250–275bp gap still rewards the yen carry trade even as the BOJ tightens. (2) An energy shock. Japan imports 90%+ of its crude through the Strait of Hormuz. Renewed U

A recent Nikkei investigation has put a spotlight on a massive but largely overlooked aspect of the AI infrastructure boom: Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Oracle collectively hold approximately $1.65 trillion in off-balance-sheet obligations. That’s more than their combined $1.35 trillion in reported on-balance-sheet debt. How can that be possible? Well, because under US GAAP (primarily ASC 842 for leases), companies are not required to recognize certain lease obligat

Yesterday, almost simultaneously, two different worlds coexisted. One dominated my feed with joy: extra time, a golden goal, a nation celebrating. The other headline is harder to look away from: the US carried out its ninth consecutive night of strikes on Iran, following the collapse of a ceasefire reached just weeks earlier. Iran has retaliated with missile attacks reaching Jordan, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and Oman, and has renewed threats to the Strait of Hormuz, the corrido

Overnight, Iran struck US military positions across the Gulf again; drones and missiles aimed at bases in Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman and Qatar, with air defenses scrambling to intercept incoming fire. It’s the latest round in an escalation that has now damaged multiple US-linked bases, hit a Kuwaiti desalination plant, and has significantly affected tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, Ukraine kept up its deep-strike campaign into Russia: drone at

There is a new sheriff in town, and it comes from the East. Kimi-k3, it’s a new Chinese open model that is challenging the frontier (closed) models and is currently ranking number 1 as you can see on the top chart below. What are the implications? (1) K3 is open-weight, which means enterprises can run it on-premises or through third-party inference providers. This is a direct threat to the hyperscaler lock-in model, because If you can get Claude/Opus-level performance at a fr

SpaceX’s public market debut has been a lesson in how fast sentiment can shift. The IPO priced at $135 in mid-June. Shares spiked to an all-time high above $220 within days, then spent the following month grinding lower. As of this week, SPCX is trading around $131, below its IPO price, as you can see on the top chart below. Whats’s going on? A few things are compounding the pressure: (1) Share float is expanding fast. Only 5% of total shares were unlocked at IPO, but early-

Energy markets remain one of the most powerful transmission channels between geopolitics, economic growth, and consumer prices worldwide. With two fresh data points in front of us, the picture is worth watching closely. If you look at the 2 charts below, you can see it clearly. First, China’s crude net imports have not recovered to pre-tensions levels. If you look at the top chart, you can see that the red line (2026) shows a dramatic drop versus the 2025 trajectory (blue). Y

The June 2026 CPI came in at 3.5% YoY, down sharply from 4.2% in May and well below consensus expectations around 3.8%. On a monthly basis, headline prices fell 0.4%, the largest drop since April 2020. Core CPI (ex-food & energy) also cooled to 2.6% YoY from 2.9%, with flat readings month-over-month. The headline number was driven heavily by energy. The energy index plunged 5.7% in June, with gasoline prices dropping 9.7%. This reversal follows earlier spikes and appears tied

The stablecoin market has exploded, with issuers like Circle (USDC) and others holding billions in U.S. Treasuries and generating real yields in a high-interest-rate environment. Yield-bearing (or “yield-enhanced”) Stablecoins allow holders to earn 3-5%+ returns simply by holding the asset, often passively. For banks, this represents a major competitive threat, and that’s why they are fighting the new law, the clarity Act, that supports these instruments. Bank deposits are a

After an extraordinary run, the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) is experiencing a sharp correction. From its recent peak above 9,200, the index has fallen significantly and is now trading around 6,800 , down roughly 6.7% in the latest session alone. Looking at the classic market psychology cycle, we appear to have moved from “Mania” through “Blow-off” and into the “Fear” stage. Despite the sharp correction, the index is up 57.8% YTD. This pullback tests the resolve

Take a look at this chart of S&P 500 component performance in Q3 (as of 7/10). On the left: Many of the strongest performers from the first half of the year are showing deep red bars, significant selling pressure. On the right: The laggards and worst performers from H1 are lighting up in blue — strong buying interest. This pattern is classic institutional portfolio rebalancing at work. At the end of each quarter (and especially mid-year), portfolio managers adjust positions t

Net Equity Supply Has Turned Positive Again. After years of heavy share buybacks driving negative net equity issuance, the tide is shifting. US companies are now issuing more shares than they’re repurchasing. As the chart below illustrates, net equity supply has flipped into positive territory in recent quarters , highlighted by that notable uptick heading into 2025–2026. it is true that SpaceX has a lot to do with the positive bar in the chart, but it’s also true that someth

The Fed has announced the leadership and objectives for five independent task forces in charge with advancing the conduct of monetary policy. This initiative, assembles an impressive roster of economists, business leaders, and former central bankers to critically examine and improve how the Fed operates in a rapidly evolving economy. The five task forces, their objectives and their leaders are: • Communications: Enhancing how the Fed conveys policy amid uncertainty (led by