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The highly anticipated event of the first half of the year finally happened: SpaceX (ticker: SPCX) went public via one of the largest and most anticipated IPOs in history on June 12, 2026. Key IPO Details: (1) IPO Price: Fixed at $135 per share (a “take-it-or-leave-it” price rather than the more common range-and-price-later approach). (2) Shares Offered: Approximately 555.56 million Class A common shares. (3) Amount Raised: Roughly $75 billion, the largest IPO ever by proceed

The May 2026 U.S. jobs report released yesterday showed stronger-than-expected labor market resilience. Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 172,000 in May. This beat consensus forecasts (around 85,000) and followed an upwardly revised April gain of 179,000. Unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%. You would think the market would like the news. But stocks sold off sharply on the stronger than expected data, as it diminished hopes for imminent Fed easing and pushed bond yields hi

Another day, another headline of possible peace deal with Iran, but as usual, with strings attached. Which means no deal. In the domestic front, things are moving in credit markets with the hyperscalers. The CapEx demand is becoming so big that by the end of the year, almost all the operating cash flow from these companies will go to AI related investments (bottom chart). That means they will continue to tap the bond market, and investors are starting to price that in. In the

The U.S. published its monthly inflation data yesterday, just a week before the June FOMC meeting which will be the first one for the new chairman of the Fed, Kevin Warsh. The top chart below is worth more than a thousand words: the economy is running hot. The main reason is the energy supply shock provoked by the Iran conflict and the closure of the strait of Hormuz. And if you look at the bottom chart, which shows the global strategic oil reserves, you can see that the “fun

When we thought the U.S.- Iran peace deal was going to be signed, a US Army Apache helicopter was downed near the Strait of Hormuz, off the coast of Oman. The two crew members were rescued uninjured by a US sea drone. President Donald Trump blamed Iran for the incident, as a response, The US military launched “self-defense” airstrikes on Iranian targets, primarily in southern Iran near Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island. Strikes hit air defense systems, ground control stations, su

Inflation is slowly but surely coming back, not only in the U.S., but globally. Take a look at the table below. Even though price stability is a mandate for central banks, only 8 out of the top 30 have inflation rates that are below their targets. And in most cases, the CPI is so massaged that the real inflation is way higher than what the CPI reflects. As a consequence, the global economy is going to run hot for a while. In the case of the U.S., the new Fed chairman believes

At dawn today, Israel decided to launch an air strike on Iran infrastructure, in response to ballistic missiles sent by Iran to Israel (reportedly intercepted), which came in response to Israeli attacks to Hezbollah in Lebanon. This occurred despite the fact that Trump asked Netanyahu not to proceed with any attack and accept the (supposedly) deal with Iran. Perhaps it’s just a trick by the americans to allow Israel to attack Iran and blame them for blowing up a deal that did

The week is starting red hot on the far east. Japan and the Philippines have officially begun negotiations on where exactly the boundaries of their exclusive economic zones (EEZs) lie in the Pacific Ocean. These zones happen to be too close to or even within Taiwan realm, and China has decided it’s not going to let this one pass. This is a huge gray area because depending on who you ask, China does not have jurisdiction over Taiwan. An EEZ extends up to 200 nautical miles (ab

In 1998, the world’s most famous hedge fund (Long Term Capital Management) collapsed due to what was later known as the Asian currency crisis. It involved the Thai bath, the Indonesian Rupiah, the Korean won, and a few others. It was almost 30 years ago, and some things have changed. But currently, we have some stress on some Asian currencies again, and it’s inevitable to remember those days. As an example, take a look at the chart below: at the bottom, the Korean Kospi index

Something is going on in crypto land. Almost $2Bn of leveraged position have been allegedly liquidated in a few hours. Perhaps the foundation of the Bitcoin is being challenged after the U.S. Treasury Secretary announced that he has seized a significant amount of bitcoin from Iran. The permisionless and decentralization characteristics, alongside the fact that there is a finite amount available, is what make Bitcoin a great idea. Those characteristics rhyme with freedom from

Fresh all time highs for the S&P500. In April, it was down 7.1% for the year. Now we’re up 11% YTD. 44% on a rolling 2 year period, as you can see in the lower chart below. The companies in the index are presenting one of the strongest earnings growth periods of modern history. At the same time, and in the same period, gold measured in US dollars has almost doubled. Or if we flip the reasoning, the dollar’s purchasing power, in gold terms, has almost halved. Is that one of th

Alphabet Inc. ( Google’s parent) announced its latest major capital raise yesterday: an $80 billion equity capital raise to fund AI infrastructure and compute expansion. The use of funds: Primarily to scale AI compute infrastructure amid “unprecedented customer demand” for AI solutions. This supports Alphabet’s aggressive 2026 capital expenditure (capex) plans of $180–190 billion (roughly double 2025 levels), focused on data centers, power, and related infrastructure. The de

There is a canary in the AI coal mine. It’s the South Korean Kospi index. In the first 5 months of 2026, it has already double. And if you thought the U.S. had a concentration problem, it’s a joke compared to the Kospi. Almost half of the index market cap is composed of Samsung and SK Hynix. And leveraged is very high. But of course, it’s “justified” because chip exports on May were 169% up YoY. The index has been stopped several times this year because it has hit the upside

After a spectacular 1Q earnings season, and despite geopolitical events, and some macro data, the U.S. equity market keeps making new all time highs. The concentration is historic, but investors believe it’s justified as AI will govern our lives pretty soon, and there will be very few winners, perhaps only one. The tables below remind us that we have been here before, and bull markets die on euphoria, and age. According to the table on the right, the current bull market for t

According to american newspapers, the U.S. and Iran are the closest they have been to reach an agreement on the framework for the relationship going forward. Aside from the core items such as opening Hormuz and abandon the nuclear program, there is the issue of the Iranian frozen funds and the possibility of reopening the Swift platform so they can transact in US dollars. But the story today has to do with the alternative to that route. Bitcoin came of in 2007 as a permisionl

Yesterday was not a good day for economic data in the U.S. GDP for the first quarter was revised down to 1.6% annualized rate, which doesn’t tell a great growth picture. But the real story is the consumer. Disposable income is falling down, pressured by low real salaries and high inflation. As a consequence, the savings rate is just above the all time low. The middle class is being crushed. You can see that in the charts below. The importance of opening the strait of Hormuz i

A very interesting fact is shown in the chart below. When markets get ahead of themselves, often you see signs that would indicate common sense has taken the back seat. There are currently more ETFs listed in the U.S. than actual stocks, which is the typical underlying of those ETFs. Think about that for a second: there are more baskets of financial assets, than financial assets. It’s like having more hammers than nails. We also know that the total gross notional exposure in

With almost 90% of S&P500 Companies reported, 1Q26 was one of the strongest U.S. earnings seasons in recent years for the S&P 500: (1) Revenue growth: 11.6% YoY, the highest since Q2 2022. (2) Earnings (net income/EPS) growth: 28.4% year-over-year. This marks the highest since Q4 2021 and the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. (3) Net profit margin: 14.8% up from the prior year (12.8%) and above the 5-year average. (4) Beat rates were exceptionally high: 84% of

The Iranian conflict took another turn yesterday. When both parties were allegedly going to reach an agreement, the US conducted strikes it called defensive; Iran called them a breach. Neither side has fully abandoned the truce framework as of the latest reports, but it’s under heavy strain. Which begs the question if the true motives of the conflict have changed for the US. Perhaps what started as a rapid conflict to seize a big oil producer and provoke a regime change, is n

The Cleveland Fed's CPI Nowcasting model, which estimates inflation before official data is released, currently stands at 4.18%. This data point has been published this week, as Mr Warsh was swore in. It’s is a welcome message from an economy that is running hot in prices, but it’s not hot in salaries or jobs. Take a look at the chart below: you’re looking at the Index of consumer sentiment in the US. The index is constructed on 5 core questions: (1) personal finances today v