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A world in conflict

Yesterday, images from the attack to Israel from Hamas were seen all over the world. Israel has announced they will retailiate in a other episode of the historical conflict. Unfortunately, this is not an isolated case. As Ray Dalio has repeatedly mentioned in his posts and books and as Neil Howe has written extensively in his book “the fourth turning”, levels of conflict go up cyclically, at the end of periods of 80-100 years called saeculum. As you can see in the heat map below, the levels of conflict are going up, as resources become scarce and more expensive, and as economic well being decreases. Migrations of people are increasing from poor or conflicted areas of the world into (more) safe and prosperous regions, stressing borders and confronting nations along the way. That in turn can make free movement of goods more difficult and more costly which reinforces conflicts.

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Source: Council on Foreign Nations

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