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  • founder021

CPI and unemployment

After the positive reaction from markets to the fed hike and #cpinumber last week, comments from fed officials have come up stating the fed will continue hiking until inflation is under control, and 7.7% is too high to be considered under control. At the same time, layoffs and hiring freezes have been announced, particularly in the tech sector. The question then is: at what level of unemployment will there be enough demand destruction, caused by tightening, in order for inflation to be at 2ish%? According to the chart below, unemployment will have to raise to 6.4% to hit the fed inflation target. It currently sits at 3.7%.

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