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Unemployment adjustments

Unemployment has been probably the strongest economic data point of the U.S. economy over the last year, despite #ratehikes by the #federalreserve and 2 quarters of negative #gdp. Non-farm Payrolls have surprised consensus to the upside 14 consecutive months. If you have a model that overestimates 14 consecutive months you will probably make an adjustment or simply disregard it as poor predictor. But maybe the model is not the problem. You can report employment from two perspectives: a survey to households, or a survey to employees (payroll). In the latter, the #bls, the agency in charge of measuring this data, makes adjustments, such as the birth/death of companies, and that adjustment has contributed 1.84 million jobs since March 2022, almost 43% of all job creation during the period. Furthermore, since January, the payroll number has been revised down every time. It is eye-popping to see unemployment so low on current economic conditions. Let’s see how long these “adjustments” can continue.

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