Connect, Aggregate
and Analyze

Another day, another surprise in the negotiations between the US and Iran. The memorandum of understanding (MoU) was signed electronically on Wednesday, marking a preliminary framework to extend a fragile ceasefire from the conflict. Thanks to that framework, we should have Immediate and permanent end to military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon and the reopening of the strait of Hormuz. With that, comes a 60-day window for negotiations on a more comprehensive deal

In his first FOMC press conference yesterday, following a decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75%, new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh outlined a vision for evolving the Federal Reserve’s operations through greater focus on its core dual mandate (price stability and maximum employment), reduced forward guidance, and structured reviews via task forces. Warsh strongly emphasized the FOMC’s unanimous commitment to delivering price stability, noting that inflation has

Optimism around an interim US-Iran peace/framework deal, potentially easing sanctions and reopening aspects of the Strait of Hormuz, has driven oil prices lower, with Brent and WTI holding or trading below $80. 2 Iranian oil supertankers appear to have cleared the U.S. blockade in Hormuz and might be on its way to its final destination. It does look like the deal might go through. They’re expected to sign it on Friday in Geneva. The Dow. Jones Industrial Average hit a new all

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised its short-term policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.0% yesterday. This is the highest level since 1995 (a 31-year high), marking the BOJ’s fifth hike since ending negative rates in March 2024. The decision was widely expected (markets had priced in ~90-100% probability) and passed by a 7-1 vote, with one dissenter citing downside risks to the economy. The move aims to address inflation pressures from elevated energy prices linked to the Iranian c

Will this be the good one? The U.S. and Iran appear to have reached a peace agreement. Details vary slightly by source (US and Iranian sides emphasize different aspects), but the core elements include: 1. Immediate and permanent cessation of hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon. 2. US commitment to non-interference in Iran’s internal affairs and respect for Iranian sovereignty. 3. Lifting of the US naval blockade on Iranian ports within 30 days. 4. US withdrawal o

No rate change is expected at this week’s FOMC meeting. Rates should remain in the 3.50%-3.75% target range. This is Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Fed Chair, and it includes a Summary of Economic Projections (SEP, or “dot plot”) along with his post-meeting press conference. According to Fed Funds Futures, the probability of “no move” is 97.1% (see chart below. No economist in recent Reuters polling expects a cut, and a hike is extremely unlikely now. The statement is likely

The highly anticipated event of the first half of the year finally happened: SpaceX (ticker: SPCX) went public via one of the largest and most anticipated IPOs in history on June 12, 2026. Key IPO Details: (1) IPO Price: Fixed at $135 per share (a “take-it-or-leave-it” price rather than the more common range-and-price-later approach). (2) Shares Offered: Approximately 555.56 million Class A common shares. (3) Amount Raised: Roughly $75 billion, the largest IPO ever by proceed

The May 2026 U.S. jobs report released yesterday showed stronger-than-expected labor market resilience. Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 172,000 in May. This beat consensus forecasts (around 85,000) and followed an upwardly revised April gain of 179,000. Unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%. You would think the market would like the news. But stocks sold off sharply on the stronger than expected data, as it diminished hopes for imminent Fed easing and pushed bond yields hi

Another day, another headline of possible peace deal with Iran, but as usual, with strings attached. Which means no deal. In the domestic front, things are moving in credit markets with the hyperscalers. The CapEx demand is becoming so big that by the end of the year, almost all the operating cash flow from these companies will go to AI related investments (bottom chart). That means they will continue to tap the bond market, and investors are starting to price that in. In the

The U.S. published its monthly inflation data yesterday, just a week before the June FOMC meeting which will be the first one for the new chairman of the Fed, Kevin Warsh. The top chart below is worth more than a thousand words: the economy is running hot. The main reason is the energy supply shock provoked by the Iran conflict and the closure of the strait of Hormuz. And if you look at the bottom chart, which shows the global strategic oil reserves, you can see that the “fun

When we thought the U.S.- Iran peace deal was going to be signed, a US Army Apache helicopter was downed near the Strait of Hormuz, off the coast of Oman. The two crew members were rescued uninjured by a US sea drone. President Donald Trump blamed Iran for the incident, as a response, The US military launched “self-defense” airstrikes on Iranian targets, primarily in southern Iran near Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island. Strikes hit air defense systems, ground control stations, su

Inflation is slowly but surely coming back, not only in the U.S., but globally. Take a look at the table below. Even though price stability is a mandate for central banks, only 8 out of the top 30 have inflation rates that are below their targets. And in most cases, the CPI is so massaged that the real inflation is way higher than what the CPI reflects. As a consequence, the global economy is going to run hot for a while. In the case of the U.S., the new Fed chairman believes

At dawn today, Israel decided to launch an air strike on Iran infrastructure, in response to ballistic missiles sent by Iran to Israel (reportedly intercepted), which came in response to Israeli attacks to Hezbollah in Lebanon. This occurred despite the fact that Trump asked Netanyahu not to proceed with any attack and accept the (supposedly) deal with Iran. Perhaps it’s just a trick by the americans to allow Israel to attack Iran and blame them for blowing up a deal that did

The week is starting red hot on the far east. Japan and the Philippines have officially begun negotiations on where exactly the boundaries of their exclusive economic zones (EEZs) lie in the Pacific Ocean. These zones happen to be too close to or even within Taiwan realm, and China has decided it’s not going to let this one pass. This is a huge gray area because depending on who you ask, China does not have jurisdiction over Taiwan. An EEZ extends up to 200 nautical miles (ab

In 1998, the world’s most famous hedge fund (Long Term Capital Management) collapsed due to what was later known as the Asian currency crisis. It involved the Thai bath, the Indonesian Rupiah, the Korean won, and a few others. It was almost 30 years ago, and some things have changed. But currently, we have some stress on some Asian currencies again, and it’s inevitable to remember those days. As an example, take a look at the chart below: at the bottom, the Korean Kospi index

Something is going on in crypto land. Almost $2Bn of leveraged position have been allegedly liquidated in a few hours. Perhaps the foundation of the Bitcoin is being challenged after the U.S. Treasury Secretary announced that he has seized a significant amount of bitcoin from Iran. The permisionless and decentralization characteristics, alongside the fact that there is a finite amount available, is what make Bitcoin a great idea. Those characteristics rhyme with freedom from

Fresh all time highs for the S&P500. In April, it was down 7.1% for the year. Now we’re up 11% YTD. 44% on a rolling 2 year period, as you can see in the lower chart below. The companies in the index are presenting one of the strongest earnings growth periods of modern history. At the same time, and in the same period, gold measured in US dollars has almost doubled. Or if we flip the reasoning, the dollar’s purchasing power, in gold terms, has almost halved. Is that one of th

Alphabet Inc. ( Google’s parent) announced its latest major capital raise yesterday: an $80 billion equity capital raise to fund AI infrastructure and compute expansion. The use of funds: Primarily to scale AI compute infrastructure amid “unprecedented customer demand” for AI solutions. This supports Alphabet’s aggressive 2026 capital expenditure (capex) plans of $180–190 billion (roughly double 2025 levels), focused on data centers, power, and related infrastructure. The de

There is a canary in the AI coal mine. It’s the South Korean Kospi index. In the first 5 months of 2026, it has already double. And if you thought the U.S. had a concentration problem, it’s a joke compared to the Kospi. Almost half of the index market cap is composed of Samsung and SK Hynix. And leveraged is very high. But of course, it’s “justified” because chip exports on May were 169% up YoY. The index has been stopped several times this year because it has hit the upside

After a spectacular 1Q earnings season, and despite geopolitical events, and some macro data, the U.S. equity market keeps making new all time highs. The concentration is historic, but investors believe it’s justified as AI will govern our lives pretty soon, and there will be very few winners, perhaps only one. The tables below remind us that we have been here before, and bull markets die on euphoria, and age. According to the table on the right, the current bull market for t