War and order

Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said Tehran has no plan for another round of negotiations with the United States, stating that any US delegation travelling to Islamabad is “their own matter”. Baqaei also stated that transferring Iran’s enriched uranium stockpiles to the US or any third country has never been part of talks and is not under consideration. And just like that we are in War mode again, with reports that the U.S. may be sending troops to Iran to take control of Hormuz. Oil is up 5% and futures are down slightly. The S&P500 is close to All time highs, and according to the chart below, fairly valued if you believe corporate earnings will grow 17+% yoy and rates will not go up. The analysis does not take into account a continuous oil shock, as we get into another potential round of attacks. Meanwhile, the UAE has formally requested a dollar swap line to the US, despite having deep coffers in sovereign wealth funds. They have seen what Iranian drone attacks can do to their infrastructure and want to be liquid to avoid selling gold reserves. If the U.S. does not accept, they will ask the Chinese. This military war may change the monetary order.

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