Connect, Aggregate
and Analyze

It’s already been 3 years since the public announcement of ChatGPT, the most popular AI powered chatbot. Since then, AI related companies have taken the world at a frenetic pace, to the point where it’s difficult to find a publication, or have a conversation where the technology is not present. So much so, that we have been promised a messiah that will save us from debt, unemployment and inflation. What’s the scorecard for the AI toddler? Take a look at the charts below; on t

Three trading days before year end, and predictions for next year are starting to come out. Predictions are usually of low value, with the notable exception that allows you, the investor, to know what the consensus view is. Since investing is a zero sum game for the most part, betting on those areas where consensus might be wrong, provides big rewards. In the chart below you can see 25 predictions organized by theme: markets, economy, technology, geopolitics and everything el

Global debt keeps going up. Both in absolute terms and relative to global GDP. It has reached $346Tn dollars as of Sept 2025 and represents approximately 338% of global GDP. Since the dollar is weakening against most currencies, when expressed in USD, debt has a currency component that has pushed the avokute level up, but that’s clearly not the root of thr problem. The relative part is the tricky one: the red line you see on the chart below measures debt over GDP, and that r

As of today (Dec 27th), the federal government is operating under a continuing resolution (CR) enacted in November 2025. This CR ended a 43-day shutdown that began on October 1, 2025, by providing full-year funding (through September 30, 2026) for a few areas, like Agriculture/FDA, Military Construction/Veterans Affairs, and the Legislative Branch, while extending temporary funding at prior levels for most other agencies only until January 30, 2026. But if Congress and Presid

One of the big topics for the new year is inflation. Will global economies be able to contain it, after massive rate cuts, or will it come back for a second wave similar to the 80’s? To get some perspective, the chart below shows the average annual rate of inflation for 152 countries since 1971, the year Richard Nixon broke the gold standard and the world abandoned the Bretton Woods agreement to become 100% fiat. Most Central Banks have a “price stability” mandate, that for s

What is happening in the silver market is nothing sort of remarkable. Over the last month, silver sport price has climbed almost 42%, for an incredible 143% YTD return. The imbalance between supply and demand that you can see on the chart below, and the dual “personality” of silver as precious metal and industrial component of solar panels, EVs, and chips is creating an incredible squeeze that is pushing the price up. As a commodity is also benefiting from the fiat currency d

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)  released yesterday the initial estimate for third-quarter 2025 GDP  . This report was delayed due to a 43-day federal government shutdown in October–November 2025, which disrupted data collection. It combines elements typically found in the advance and second estimates, replacing those releases. A revision is scheduled for January 22nd, 2026. The number was very good, with a 4.3% annualized growth rate, almost 1% above consensus. In fact

American exceptionalism took a breather in 2025. Every relevant market performed better than the S&P500 this year, as you can see in the chart below. It’s interesting to see the breakdown and sources of performance from the other markets compared to the US. For instance, one big component was the weakness of the U.S. dollar, which boosted European markets returns (gray component). Second, the multiple expansion did not contribute meaningfully in the U.S., since it was already

It probably doesn’t make sense to stop and rethink our investment strategy on December 31st, simply because the earth goes around the sun every 365 days (and a few a hours), but that’s what we do. We measure returns in calendar years, and, in general investors make big adjustments or revisions at year end. Although 2025 will go through history as a very good year for markets, it is troubling that precious metals are up as much as they are. And it’s also troubling that the US

The sovereign bond market is going through a transformation as governments, particularly Developed econommies, try to manage their deficits and the bond issuance to finance them. In the chart below you can see that 10 year yields (red line) are going up since the pandemic, after more than forty years on a down trend. Inflation and too much debt have pushed yields up, breaking that long term channel. The blue line shows the average time to maturity, which is tending down, sign

The Bank of Japan hiked rates by a 75 bps. Out of the major economies in the world is the only one hiking, trying to control inflation and the subsequent jump in long term yields.While the U.S. is on a mission to lower rates to avoid problems with unemployment, risking a potential spike in inflation, Japan needs to control its borrowing costs, ending years of stimulus. The 10 year JGB, has already reached 2%. Five years ago, it was yielding zero. 2 years ago, it was yielding

The inflation report for November was published yesterday. After skipping October due to the government shutdown, the November report was highly anticipated, even after knowing that it was going to be after the FOMC meeting of last week. The report showed a super benign price behavior in the overall number and the Core, much better than anticipated by every economist that dared to forecast it. The reason? The shelter component. As you can see seeing the chart below, you can s

The Bank of England just cut the oficial rate by 25 bps and the ECB will likely announce no further cuts this year in its meeting today, alluding inflation risks. The year ends with the biggest global central bank monetary stimuli in history, with close to 320 rate cuts over the last 24 months. When you stimulate the global economy that way, some risks appear. It may not be the only source of risk, but it’s a very relevant one. In the cart below, you can see a set of risk sou

The job market in the U.S. is not as good as it seems. First of all, government jobs were increased substantially during the Biden era, and it’s not clear wether those jobs will be kept by the Trump administration. Second, AI is starting to affect unemployment, particularly the youth labor market, where some jobs are easily being substituted by AI agents. Third, robotics is on the verge of being mainstream, and will also affect some manufacturing jobs. And fourth, most of the

Even though it seems the US yield curve is static and does not move considering the economic context (deficit, inflation, shutdown, etc), the reality is that it is indeed quietly moving. In the chart below you can see 6 buckets of the curve, organized by term, where you can see the movement on each one since the Fed started cutting rates in September 17th, 2024. The curve is steepening, not much yet, as it’s probably waiting to see what happens to the tug of war on inflation

There seems to be another dislocation created in the market by AI. The demand for chips, particularly for DRAM, has been so strong and so fast, that inventories are now able to keep the pace. In the chart below you can see how invetories have been depleted, pushing prices up on the chips. On top of that, some of the components in those chips might be in short supply, affecting production. Demand shocks like this, are not only affecting the stock market, they can affect econom

As the year closes, Wall Street starts to come out with predictions on where thr S&P500 will close by the end of next year. You can see the man projections in the chart below. Warren Buffett says that financial projections often tell you more about the person/entity that projects than the projections themselves. All these banks have a vetted interest in the market going up, not necessarily being right. Perhaps it is for that reason that none of them projects a negative result

Now that the Fed week has ended and we’re on the home stretch for the year, investors are starting to think about next year. In terms of monetary policy, it appears to be clear that it will be accommodative. Trump has publicly said he wants rates at 1%, but the market has learned (hopefully) to take his comments with a grain of salt. But the direction is clear. And it’s also clear that the Fed will be less independent from now on. The president wants to be “consulted” on mone

The race for Artificial General Intelligence is taking some unexpected turns. The infrastructure needs to be able to train the models and grab market share, implies massive capital expenditures. Whether you call them magnificent 7 or hyperscalers, the big tech megacap companies have committed a big percentage of their revenues to make sure they remain in the race. They all understand the AI race is an infinite game, where there are no explicit rules and no timeframe; the only

The FOMC concluded its final meeting of 2025 yesterday, announcing a widely expected 25 basis point (0.25%) cut to the federal funds rate, lowering the target range to 3.50%-3.75%. This marks the third consecutive rate reduction this year, bringing the total easing since September 2024 to 175 basis points. The FOMC noted moderate economic expansion but highlighted elevated inflation and rising downside risks to employment. In terms of future rate path: Median expectation poin