Shutdown again?

As of today (Dec 27th), the federal government is operating under a continuing resolution (CR) enacted in November 2025. This CR ended a 43-day shutdown that began on October 1, 2025, by providing full-year funding (through September 30, 2026) for a few areas, like Agriculture/FDA, Military Construction/Veterans Affairs, and the Legislative Branch, while extending temporary funding at prior levels for most other agencies only until January 30, 2026. But if Congress and President Trump do not enact new appropriations bills or another CR before January 30, 2026, funding will lapse for the unfunded portions of the government, triggering a partial or full shutdown beginning January 31, 2026. If ongoing negotiations on government expenditures and Affordable Care, do not reach a mid point, the government will be shut again, which may affect growth, but also the publication of major economic data such as inflation and unemployment that are crucial to discern the direction of the U.S. economy. In the chart below, you can see the odds of a shutdown happening in January, and it’s starting to not look

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