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Net Equity Supply Has Turned Positive Again. After years of heavy share buybacks driving negative net equity issuance, the tide is shifting. US companies are now issuing more shares than they’re repurchasing. As the chart below illustrates, net equity supply has flipped into positive territory in recent quarters , highlighted by that notable uptick heading into 2025–2026. it is true that SpaceX has a lot to do with the positive bar in the chart, but it’s also true that someth

The Fed has announced the leadership and objectives for five independent task forces in charge with advancing the conduct of monetary policy. This initiative, assembles an impressive roster of economists, business leaders, and former central bankers to critically examine and improve how the Fed operates in a rapidly evolving economy. The five task forces, their objectives and their leaders are: • Communications: Enhancing how the Fed conveys policy amid uncertainty (led by

The minutes of Kevin Warsh first FOMC meeting were released yesterday and they revealed that some voting members were advocating for hikes this year, while at the same time, acknowledged that if inflation were to come down as oil pressure recedes, they will lean into rate cuts. In other words, there is no clear path forward. Interestingly, in the minutes it was mentioned that part of the inflation measures were due to AI, specifically on equipment (chips). Go figure that one.

The AI race is going to change the shape of the corporate bond market. Please take a look at the chart below: it’s estimated (by GS) that the hyperscalers combined CAPEX needs for fiscal 2027 will be almost $1Tn. Not cumulative, only for 2027. To give you context, the current combined market cap of the companies in the picture is roughly $12Tn. In other words, they are betting 8% of their market cap on AI data centers and infrastructure, with a less than clear ROIC (Return on

The private credit sector continues to be under stress. Headlines have calmed down a little bit, but the dynamics have not improved, at least not meaningfully. In the top chart below, you can see the quarterly redemptions since 2022 for the Busienss Development Companies (BDCs); up until 4Q25, 100% of redemptions were allowed and paid back to investors. Since then, due to an avalanche of nervous investors, redemptions have been gated and, as of last quarter, on average, less

Safe haven assets have let investors down in 2026 so far. Treasuries, gold, and the Japanese yen are the classic go-to assets during market stress. In theory, they should rally (or at least hold steady) when equities wobble and geopolitical risks spike. This year, at least so far, that hasn’t happened. This isn’t a classic “risk-off” environment where everything flees to safety. Inflation worries, supply shocks (e.g., from Middle East developments), sticky prices, and strong

Central banks have been major net buyers of gold for several years, marking a significant shift from earlier periods when many were net sellers. This trend accelerated notably after 2022 amid geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty, and a strategic push for reserve diversification. In 2026 so far, buying has continued at a solid pace, with Q1 net purchases around 244 tonnes. Unreported or opaque buying remains substantial, as some institutions add reserves without immedia

Today, the U.S. celebrates its 250th anniversary as a country. You would think that this birthday should correspond to a teenager when compared to the average country in the world, given that most countries in Europe have been around in more or less their current form, since the Middle Ages, but a simple prompt to your favorite AI model, will tell you that the average age of a country in 2026 is 160-170 years. What’s ahead for the next 50-100 years? The country is currently f

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Employment Situation report for June yesterday. Unemployment rate edged down to 4.2% (from 4.3% in May). You can see it on the top chart below. The number of unemployed people was little changed at 7.1 million. This drop was largely driven by a decline in the labor force participation rate, which fell 0.3 percentage points to 61.5% as you can see in the middle chart below (a five-year low). The employment to population rati

US M2 money supply has been hitting repeated record highs in 2026, reaching about $23.05 trillion in May 2026 (seasonally adjusted). It has grown steadily month-over-month, with year-over-year growth accelerating to around 5.6% in May 2026 (the fastest since mid-2022), up from lower rates earlier in the recovery. This is likely the reason why inflation is stubbornly high, on top of the oil drama in Hormuz. M2 includes cash, checking deposits, savings deposits, money market fu

The first half of the year is gone. Today the second half starts, and investors have multiple reasons to not invest in financial markets: inflation higher than expected, high valuations, geopolitical conflicts, bombings, high energy prices, to name a few. And yet, if you look at the Fund@mental market monitor below, you can see that equity indices (represented by investable ETFs) are for the most part, on green territory. The S&P500 is almost 10% up for the year, and the Nasd

The Japanese yen has reached the weakest level vs the US dollar in 4 decades. This marks a continuation of a multi-year trend of yen depreciation that began intensifying around 2022, with only temporary relief from interventions and modest Bank of Japan (BOJ) tightening. Several interconnected factors explain the ongoing pressure: (1) Interest Rate Differentials va the US. The BOJ has raised its policy rate gradually, reaching 1.0% in June (highest since 1995), but this remai

On Thursday, prior to the celebratory weekend with the 250th birthday of the USA, the unemployment report will be published. No surprises are expected. The unemployment is forecasted to be 4.3% by economists. As you can see in the table below, it’s been pretty stable over the last year. In this instance it will be the first jobs report for the new Fed chairman, which has a set of task force teams to come up with the best course of action for the U.S. economy. At this point, j

The South Korean market has had an incredible run this year. With a high level of concentration and leverage, it has gone up 95% YTD. But the returns have not occurred in a straight line. 5 times during the year, the market has been halted due to excessive volatility, and you can see that in the top chart below. Big swings have been the norm. What’s happen in now os that because of those swings, the probability of a short circuit or malfunction goes up abruptly. The bottom ch

Crypto is undergoing another stress test and/or proof of concept. Since October 2025 Bitcoin has suffered a 50%+ drawdown from its peak of $126,198 to its current value around $60,000. This is not unusual for bitcoin, in fact, it is expected if history rhymes. But take a look at the charts below: perhaps the two major vehicles/entities that have purchased bitcoin in the past (similar conclusions with Ethereum), namely Strategy (MSTR) and the Bitcoin ETFs (IBIT, Grayscale, etc

Global equity markets are suffering increased volatility recently, and the dynamic that explain that behavior is really interesting. On one end, we have the hyperscalers (Amazon, alphabet, Microsoft, Oracle etc), the behemoths that are investing trillions of dollars collectively into the AI space (data centers, models, etc). On the other, we have the chips companies (NVDA, Micron) that are the ones receiving those investments to produce the new gold: the chips that constitute

Oil is heading down today trading as if the situation in Hormuz was normalized, when in fact it’s far from normal as we speak. Take a look at the top chart below: oil tankers traffic is still very low compared to pre war levels, and progress on negotiations is slow and fragile. There are still major points to agree in the MoU between Iran and the U.S. Trump is trying to convince the public the worst is over, but reality shows that is not still the case. Oil is trading below 7

The market dynamic is accelerating and it’s seems to be approaching a delicate phase. Please take a look at the charts below: on the top one, you can see how the momentum factor is, by far, the dominant force in this market, more than 3X the growth factor. What are the implications? Take a look now at the second and third charts; companies are taking advantage of the insatiable market appetite for equities, to raise capital on public markets. SpaceX, Anthropic, Google and oth

The U.S. treasury auctioned 3 and 6 month T-bills yesterday, and both increased their yield enough to raise some eye brows. The 6 month bill is paging you now an annualized yield of 3.84% (from 3.68%). The 2 year Treasury bond real yield is now above 2%, with inflation ramping up. Investors are starting to realize that Mr Warsh is right; inflation is a choice, and we’ve chosen to live in a more inflationary world. Yields are just adapting to the new reality. Absent a recessio

The world keeps waiting on diplomacy to work its magic between Iran and the U.S., but it may have to wait a little longer. Talks began yesterday, amid tensions: Iran had briefly closed the Strait of Hormuz, and Trump issued threats of renewed strikes if Iran pursued nuclear weapons or supported Hezbollah. Vance emphasized diplomacy and an outstretched hand while stressing U.S. red lines. That’s the infamous “carrot and stick” American strategy. Sessions lasted into the night,