250th anniversary

Today, the U.S. celebrates its 250th anniversary as a country. You would think that this birthday should correspond to a teenager when compared to the average country in the world, given that most countries in Europe have been around in more or less their current form, since the Middle Ages, but a simple prompt to your favorite AI model, will tell you that the average age of a country in 2026 is 160-170 years. What’s ahead for the next 50-100 years? The country is currently fighting to preserve its behemoth status as an economic, military and technological leader, a luxury and a responsibility that has enjoyed since WWII. On the economic front, there are several challenges, and perhaps the most important one is the hegemony of the U.S. dollar. Both endogenous and exogenous factors are impacting the green buck: (1) China, Russia with the BRICS countries want to escape the petrodollar regime, where oil is measured and transacted in dollars. This regime gives America a huge advantage in the global monetary system. (2) on the endogenous front, the national debt is weighing on the value of the dollar that has been severely debased over the last 50 years as debt has skyrocketed. This pattern is prompting a set of new initiatives to force the U.S. to keep some fiscal discipline, among them, Gold backed Treausry bonds or the revaluation of the gold reserves the treasury hold in its books at $42.22, a price set in 1973. At today’s prices, that would imply 100X its value, which will provide a $1Tn increase and some relief on the budget. For the next 250 years, the US needs discipline on its finances and another wave of ingenious inventions, such as AI and quantum computers if it wants to continue with the privilege to rule the world.

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