The dollar

The dollar isn’t crashing. It’s eroding. There’s a difference, and it’s the one investors keep missing.

If you look at the top chart below, you can see the U.S. Dollar Index over the past decade: still hovering around 99, roughly where it started. Flat. Boring. It represents the trade weighted value of one fiat currency (USD) vs a basket of other fiat currencies. Nothing to see here, right? Now look at the bottom chart with the price of gold in U.S. dollars: up over 250% in the same window, north of $4,600 an ounce. That gap is the story. The dollar isn’t collapsing against its fiat peers; the euro, the yen, the pound are all fighting the same battle: debt-fueled currencies propping each other up in a race where nobody wants to fall too far behind. It’s a relative game. But relative to something that can’t be printed: gold. the picture is brutally clear. This is currency debasement, not currency collapse. Here’s the backdrop: (1) US national debt: pushing past $40 trillion, (2) Structural deficits with no political will to close them, (3) A Treasury increasingly leaning on yield curve control, capping long-end rates to keep debt service manageable, even if it means tolerating more inflation. Yield curve control is the quiet part. When a government controls the price of its own borrowing, it’s telling you the market price was inconvenient. That’s not a technical adjustment. it’s a signal. Real rates get suppressed, savers get taxed silently through inflation, and hard assets become the pressure valve. That seems to be what the gold chart is showing. Not “gold is having a moment.” Gold is doing what it has always done: holding its value while paper currencies quietly hand theirs away. The dollar will likely stay dominant against other fiat currencies for a while: reserve status, liquidity, and habit are powerful anchors. But dominance among a shrinking currency isn’t the same as strength. The real comparison isn’t dollar vs. euro. It’s dollar vs. gold. And on that scoreboard, the trend has been unambiguous for a decade. Portfolios built only to compare fiat against fiat are missing the bigger risk sitting underneath all of them.

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