The flow

Oil is heading down today trading as if the situation in Hormuz was normalized, when in fact it’s far from normal as we speak. Take a look at the top chart below: oil tankers traffic is still very low compared to pre war levels, and progress on negotiations is slow and fragile. There are still major points to agree in the MoU between Iran and the U.S. Trump is trying to convince the public the worst is over, but reality shows that is not still the case. Oil is trading below 70, indicating no stress, but global oil reserves are very low. Unless data shows tankers can freely pass Hormuz, we will likely see more volatility ahead.

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