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Winter in the summer?

  • Writer: Gustavo A Cano, CFA, FRM
    Gustavo A Cano, CFA, FRM
  • 12 minutes ago
  • 1 min read

Crypto is undergoing another stress test and/or proof of concept. Since October 2025 Bitcoin has suffered a 50%+ drawdown from its peak of $126,198 to its current value around $60,000. This is not unusual for bitcoin, in fact, it is expected if history rhymes. But take a look at the charts below: perhaps the two major vehicles/entities that have purchased bitcoin in the past (similar conclusions with Ethereum), namely Strategy (MSTR) and the Bitcoin ETFs (IBIT, Grayscale, etc) are significantly below their average purchase price, with a combined unrealized loss of more than $40Bn. Those losses can break MSTR business model (selling shares to buy Bitcoin) and retail investors in the ETFs can be dragged down if MSTR is forced to liquidate its Bitcoin treasury. Big leveraged players amplify corrections and rebounds. We might be approaching another crypto winter. Beware of risk assets.


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