Risk map

The Bank of England just cut the oficial rate by 25 bps and the ECB will likely announce no further cuts this year in its meeting today, alluding inflation risks. The year ends with the biggest global central bank monetary stimuli in history, with close to 320 rate cuts over the last 24 months. When you stimulate the global economy that way, some risks appear. It may not be the only source of risk, but it’s a very relevant one. In the cart below, you can see a set of risk sources for 2026. Among them, the chief one is a reality check on AI followed by central bank over stimulation. And maybe both risks are tied by the hip. The mismatch between CapEx to build data centers and the cash flow from them, will likely create some turmoil. And perhaps the Fed will be obligated to intervene if investors adjust their expectations to a more realistic outcome. The Fed is already positioned for money printing and lower rates, and unemployment is telling us that the economy is cooling. 2026 promises to be a volatile year, where risk management is likely going to take the front seat over asset returns.

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