AI contribution scorecard

It’s already been 3 years since the public announcement of ChatGPT, the most popular AI powered chatbot. Since then, AI related companies have taken the world at a frenetic pace, to the point where it’s difficult to find a publication, or have a conversation where the technology is not present. So much so, that we have been promised a messiah that will save us from debt, unemployment and inflation. What’s the scorecard for the AI toddler? Take a look at the charts below; on the top, it shows the percentage of debt issued by year by sector, including, in red, the AI related companies. Obviously, the trick is to define the perimeter of “AI related”, as big companies do more than that, but we’ll take the chart at face value. 15% of all IG debt issued is ring fenced by AI, doubling last year weight. On the lower chart, you can see the AI related contribution to US GDP, which is 4.5%. The whole credit market is $105Tn, and the US GDP is $30Tn. Although we’re not using the same perimeter, we can conclude that, so far, we’re still on the early stages of the J-curve for AI. And debt is growing much faster than outcomes. It still takes more than it gives. Much more. This is normal, but it’s also dangerous, as we have seen this movie before, and we know what happens if there is a recession or the sector hits a plateau: bankruptcies appear, and there is a major cleansing in the sector, that needs some years to recover. Something to monitor closely this new year.

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