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Bear markets

How and when do bear markets end? If we look at the table below, with a history of bear markets during recessions, we can see there are some common characteristics that happen near the end of corrections. #pmi tends to fall on average to 43, and we are currently at 47.6. #unemploymentrate increases 1.3% through the correction phase, and we just increased 0.2% to 3.7%, still very low numbers. Finally, forward #eps decrease 10.8% on average, through bear markets, and we are currently not only not expecting a decrease in earnings, expectations still point to further growth in earnings for next year. If we somehow follow the path of history, may need additional deterioration in these economic variables to see a market bottom.


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