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Recession views

Even though most asset classes have experienced a correction during 2022, due to #ratehikes, #inflation and other factors, not all of them are discounting a possible #recession in the US the same way. On one end, the #sp500 is trading as if the probability of a recession were 70%, while, on the other end, the 5 year #ustreasury barely discounts 10% probability. #highgrade bonds are discounting higher probability than #highyield. Who is right? Is it purely an economic view or does it have to do with #liquidityrisk in each market or #Margincalls? We are about to find out when 2Q #gdp is published.


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Source: JP Morgan



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