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Today, the U.S. celebrates its 250th anniversary as a country. You would think that this birthday should correspond to a teenager when compared to the average country in the world, given that most countries in Europe have been around in more or less their current form, since the Middle Ages, but a simple prompt to your favorite AI model, will tell you that the average age of a country in 2026 is 160-170 years. What’s ahead for the next 50-100 years? The country is currently f

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Employment Situation report for June yesterday. Unemployment rate edged down to 4.2% (from 4.3% in May). You can see it on the top chart below. The number of unemployed people was little changed at 7.1 million. This drop was largely driven by a decline in the labor force participation rate, which fell 0.3 percentage points to 61.5% as you can see in the middle chart below (a five-year low). The employment to population rati

US M2 money supply has been hitting repeated record highs in 2026, reaching about $23.05 trillion in May 2026 (seasonally adjusted). It has grown steadily month-over-month, with year-over-year growth accelerating to around 5.6% in May 2026 (the fastest since mid-2022), up from lower rates earlier in the recovery. This is likely the reason why inflation is stubbornly high, on top of the oil drama in Hormuz. M2 includes cash, checking deposits, savings deposits, money market fu

The first half of the year is gone. Today the second half starts, and investors have multiple reasons to not invest in financial markets: inflation higher than expected, high valuations, geopolitical conflicts, bombings, high energy prices, to name a few. And yet, if you look at the Fund@mental market monitor below, you can see that equity indices (represented by investable ETFs) are for the most part, on green territory. The S&P500 is almost 10% up for the year, and the Nasd

The Japanese yen has reached the weakest level vs the US dollar in 4 decades. This marks a continuation of a multi-year trend of yen depreciation that began intensifying around 2022, with only temporary relief from interventions and modest Bank of Japan (BOJ) tightening. Several interconnected factors explain the ongoing pressure: (1) Interest Rate Differentials va the US. The BOJ has raised its policy rate gradually, reaching 1.0% in June (highest since 1995), but this remai

On Thursday, prior to the celebratory weekend with the 250th birthday of the USA, the unemployment report will be published. No surprises are expected. The unemployment is forecasted to be 4.3% by economists. As you can see in the table below, it’s been pretty stable over the last year. In this instance it will be the first jobs report for the new Fed chairman, which has a set of task force teams to come up with the best course of action for the U.S. economy. At this point, j

The South Korean market has had an incredible run this year. With a high level of concentration and leverage, it has gone up 95% YTD. But the returns have not occurred in a straight line. 5 times during the year, the market has been halted due to excessive volatility, and you can see that in the top chart below. Big swings have been the norm. What’s happen in now os that because of those swings, the probability of a short circuit or malfunction goes up abruptly. The bottom ch

Crypto is undergoing another stress test and/or proof of concept. Since October 2025 Bitcoin has suffered a 50%+ drawdown from its peak of $126,198 to its current value around $60,000. This is not unusual for bitcoin, in fact, it is expected if history rhymes. But take a look at the charts below: perhaps the two major vehicles/entities that have purchased bitcoin in the past (similar conclusions with Ethereum), namely Strategy (MSTR) and the Bitcoin ETFs (IBIT, Grayscale, etc

Global equity markets are suffering increased volatility recently, and the dynamic that explain that behavior is really interesting. On one end, we have the hyperscalers (Amazon, alphabet, Microsoft, Oracle etc), the behemoths that are investing trillions of dollars collectively into the AI space (data centers, models, etc). On the other, we have the chips companies (NVDA, Micron) that are the ones receiving those investments to produce the new gold: the chips that constitute

Oil is heading down today trading as if the situation in Hormuz was normalized, when in fact it’s far from normal as we speak. Take a look at the top chart below: oil tankers traffic is still very low compared to pre war levels, and progress on negotiations is slow and fragile. There are still major points to agree in the MoU between Iran and the U.S. Trump is trying to convince the public the worst is over, but reality shows that is not still the case. Oil is trading below 7

The market dynamic is accelerating and it’s seems to be approaching a delicate phase. Please take a look at the charts below: on the top one, you can see how the momentum factor is, by far, the dominant force in this market, more than 3X the growth factor. What are the implications? Take a look now at the second and third charts; companies are taking advantage of the insatiable market appetite for equities, to raise capital on public markets. SpaceX, Anthropic, Google and oth

The U.S. treasury auctioned 3 and 6 month T-bills yesterday, and both increased their yield enough to raise some eye brows. The 6 month bill is paging you now an annualized yield of 3.84% (from 3.68%). The 2 year Treasury bond real yield is now above 2%, with inflation ramping up. Investors are starting to realize that Mr Warsh is right; inflation is a choice, and we’ve chosen to live in a more inflationary world. Yields are just adapting to the new reality. Absent a recessio

The world keeps waiting on diplomacy to work its magic between Iran and the U.S., but it may have to wait a little longer. Talks began yesterday, amid tensions: Iran had briefly closed the Strait of Hormuz, and Trump issued threats of renewed strikes if Iran pursued nuclear weapons or supported Hezbollah. Vance emphasized diplomacy and an outstretched hand while stressing U.S. red lines. That’s the infamous “carrot and stick” American strategy. Sessions lasted into the night,

Several major central banks appear to be pivoting toward or initiating a new rate hiking cycle, driven primarily by persistent or resurgent inflation pressures exacerbated by geopolitical tensions, particularly the Iran conflict’s impact on energy prices. Yesterday, Iranian authorities announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz again, which signals the fragility of the negotiations, and points to a sustained energy supply disruption. The European Central Bank raised its ke

Tokens are the fundamental unit of consumption in large language models (LLMs) and other AI systems. They represent chunks of text—roughly sub-word pieces that models process for both input, (your prompt, context, documents), and output (the response). Why is this relevant now? Because the consumption of tokens is exploding, and they are creating their own economy. And it’s very likely that they will be one of the most important components of the global economy if AI delivers

Another day, another surprise in the negotiations between the US and Iran. The memorandum of understanding (MoU) was signed electronically on Wednesday, marking a preliminary framework to extend a fragile ceasefire from the conflict. Thanks to that framework, we should have Immediate and permanent end to military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon and the reopening of the strait of Hormuz. With that, comes a 60-day window for negotiations on a more comprehensive deal

In his first FOMC press conference yesterday, following a decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75%, new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh outlined a vision for evolving the Federal Reserve’s operations through greater focus on its core dual mandate (price stability and maximum employment), reduced forward guidance, and structured reviews via task forces. Warsh strongly emphasized the FOMC’s unanimous commitment to delivering price stability, noting that inflation has

Optimism around an interim US-Iran peace/framework deal, potentially easing sanctions and reopening aspects of the Strait of Hormuz, has driven oil prices lower, with Brent and WTI holding or trading below $80. 2 Iranian oil supertankers appear to have cleared the U.S. blockade in Hormuz and might be on its way to its final destination. It does look like the deal might go through. They’re expected to sign it on Friday in Geneva. The Dow. Jones Industrial Average hit a new all

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised its short-term policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.0% yesterday. This is the highest level since 1995 (a 31-year high), marking the BOJ’s fifth hike since ending negative rates in March 2024. The decision was widely expected (markets had priced in ~90-100% probability) and passed by a 7-1 vote, with one dissenter citing downside risks to the economy. The move aims to address inflation pressures from elevated energy prices linked to the Iranian c

Will this be the good one? The U.S. and Iran appear to have reached a peace agreement. Details vary slightly by source (US and Iranian sides emphasize different aspects), but the core elements include: 1. Immediate and permanent cessation of hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon. 2. US commitment to non-interference in Iran’s internal affairs and respect for Iranian sovereignty. 3. Lifting of the US naval blockade on Iranian ports within 30 days. 4. US withdrawal o