SpaceX earnigns

SpaceX published yesterday after the close its first-ever quarterly earnings as a public company, and the numbers are staggering. After months of volatility, skepticism, and a stock that's been cut nearly in half from its highs, SpaceX showed the world what it's been building behind the curtain. These are the numbers: Revenue: $7.81B vs. ~$6.9B expected (+13%). Adj. EBITDA: $3.5B vs. $2.0B expected (+75%)

• AI operating loss: $1.26B vs. $2.39B feared, nearly half what analysts projected. Starlink is the cash machine with 12M+ subscribers. $2.6B in segment EBITDA. This isn't just a satellite internet play anymore, it's the engine funding everything else. AI losses are narrowing faster than expected

With $15.8B in quarterly AI capex, the market feared a money pit. Instead, early compute contracts (Alphabet, Anthropic, Reflection AI) are already showing operating leverage. Why then the stock took a nose dive after the earnings release and it’s down 11.6% in pre-market this morning?Operationally, this was a resounding validation of the model. But between a 73x price/sales multiple, $106B in estimated cumulative cash burn before FCF turns positive, and the looming lock-up flood, the stock's next move will be dictated by supply dynamics, not fundamentals. Starting August 6th, this Thursday, the lock-up expires. Up to ~911M insider shares (roughly 3x the current float) become eligible for sale. That's a $100B+ overhang that could test even the strongest bull.

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