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Recession behavior

The S&P500 has dropped a median of 24% during economic recessions in the U.S. since 1945. Although we still don’t have confirmation, the probability of the US economy being in recession is high. If we use history as a reference, and we assume we are indeed in a recession, the S&P has dropped 22.3% YTD already. Pretty close to the median. The not so good news, is that these downward movements are typically done once the #federalreserve starts easing interest rates, and according to #FOMC members, we’re still in a hiking cycle.


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Source: WSJ, Deutsche Bank


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