The S&P500 exhibits a different correction pattern, according to its median historical behavior, depending on wether there’s is an economic recession or not. And as you can see in the chart below, it’s precisely on bear market rallies where investors can spot the difference. If there’s a recession, the rally loses steam and falls into lower lows, in contrast with non recessionary periods, where the market finds support and is able to rebound. We will know if we’re on a technical recession in July 28th, where 2Q gdp is published.
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Source: Bloomberg, Daily Shot
