And just like that we’re in December, with 22 trading days to end 2025. The last month of the year is typically good for US stocks, with 73% of the months since 1928 being positive, as you can see in the chart below. The S&P500 is up 16.71% since the beginning of the year, and the Nasdaq 21.2%. Bitcoin is down 8.6%, and the dollar index (DXY) is also down 9.3%. Non US markets have so far outperformed the US, in an effort to close the valuation gap. The US bond Aggregate is up 6.4% but remains in drawdown since 2022. What’s left for the remainder of the year? The Fed meeting on December 10th, and the decision on who will be the next Fed Chairman, which should be communicated in the next 2-3 weeks. Perhaps we will also receive the decision from the SCOTUS on the legality of tariffs, and more clarity on the trade negotiations with China, which have been ongoing since April. On the geopolitical front, we may finally see the end of the Ukraine conflict and the end of the current Venezuelan regime. That is a lot to unpack before year end. So far, momentum is the dominant factor in the U.S., alongside growth, which should provide tailwinds into year end.

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