A diesel crisis

While headlines focus on crude oil, diesel/gasoil is the fuel that actually keeps the world moving: trucks, ships, tractors, generators. And right now, global export flows are trending well below their 5-year range. The two wars (Ukraine and Iran) are causing great damage to the global economy:

1- Russia — historically a top diesel exporter — is weighing a full export ban on top of existing restrictions, after attacks on its refineries and supply networks pushed its domestic fuel market into its worst crisis in two decades.

2- Shipping disruption through the Strait of Hormuz has repeatedly left millions of barrels of high-spec diesel and jet fuel stranded at sea.

3- The IEA itself has warned of distillate shortages this winter, flagging extra demand from industries switching off expensive natural gas back onto diesel and fuel oil.

When could this bite? The IEA's own warning points to Q4 2026–Q1 2027 as the pressure point — exactly when heating demand in the Northern Hemisphere stacks on top of an already tight freight and agricultural supply chain.

Diesel isn't just a transportation story. It's food (farm equipment, cold-chain trucking), it's retail (last-mile delivery), it's industrial output. A prolonged squeeze here shows up in grocery bills and shipping costs long before most people connect the dots back to a barrel of gasoil.

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