Adjustments

The last employment report on Friday showed a not so rosy picture for the labor market in the US. it also showed that every month of the current year, the initial number has been heavily revised downward, questioning the validity of the data collection, and of course if the data has been weaponized for political purposes. The director of the BLS has been fired by the president and William J. Wiatrowski has been appointed as new acting commissioner of the BLS. His mandate it to make sure that the labor statistics are “fair”. There are private labor statistics that will help keeping the official data in check, but it’s inevitable to think that the quality of data we’ve had and will have in the future, may be biased. The irony is, if going forward the employment numbers that come out are artificially good, the Fed will think the labor market is solid and may not lower rates, provided it remains independent from the White House and data dependent. And what Trump wants desperately is for the Fed to lower rates, because in his mind that will lower the debt burden, which is not necessarily the case. Beware of adjustments going forward.

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