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Back from the dip

  • Writer: Gustavo A Cano, CFA, FRM
    Gustavo A Cano, CFA, FRM
  • 14 minutes ago
  • 1 min read

The market shock in April 2nd, when President Trump announced tariffs on the world and caused drawdowns of 10-15% has been fully recovered, and, as the chart below shows, then some more. In the U.S., major indexes are still negative, between 2-6% YTD. Germany, however, is up 28% YTD measured in U.S. dollars. That’s a 34% YTD performance difference. The U.S. still has time to catch up with Europe, but the valuation story and monetary policy gap, are in favor of Europe. The Fed will speak next week, and it’s not expected to lower rates, but Powell can verbally prepared the market for June, and can set the tone for the rest of the year. The slowdown of the U.S. economy is a fact, but inflation and employment are stubbornly strong, which does not support a strong case for Powell to be aggressive.


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