Behind the handshake

The meeting between Trump and Xi has started. Polymarket was betting on the length of the handshake between the two leaders: 14 seconds. That’s a long handshake even for the land of symbolisms. Trump was guarded by the 30 CEOs of the biggest companies in the U.S, as a sign of respect, trying to feed Xi’s ego. In the first interactions, Xi spoke about the importance and the need for the two nations to have a fluid and constructive relationship. He also brought up the concept of the Thucydides trap, referring to the tensions that arise when a rising power (China) threatens to displace an established ruling power (US). At the top of the agenda in the welcoming remarks, was the issue of Taiwan. Xi stressed its critical importance for the relationship between the two nations and how a simple mismanagement of the interaction with the island can bring a lot of tension between the two nations. Trump will use that pain point to negotiate. The main issue for this summit is that Xi thinks in decades, and Trump thinks in terms of deals. Right now, Trump needs a solution to Iran and the closure of the strait of Hormuz, and Xi will patiently wait for Trump, or someone on his delegation, to bring it up. China does not seem to be in a hurry, as it has plenty of oil reserves. What will be the trade off? Taiwan is strategic for the U.S. as well, as the whole AI industry rests on TSMC. Will it be AI investment? Or will it be oil? Sun Tzu vs the art of the deal.

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