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Catching up to reality

Banks and research houses are starting to adjust their macro expectations for the second half of the year, and 2023. As can be seen below, #bankofamerica global research is projecting 5 consecutive negative gdp quarters, a moderation on inflation (PCE) and a rise in unemployment. It’s difficult to see that if this scenario were to play out exactly as presented, the #fed would continue raising rates. Consensus seems to be converging to a scenario where December is the last hike in this cycle, provided that inflation eases just enough to allow the fed to change its narrative.

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