Department of War

We are witnessing the development of major conflicts in the world as clearly delineated by Ray Dalio in the chart below. The trade war, where the U.S. wants to shift its economy from consumption to production and in order to do that it’s using tariffs and a dollar strategic devaluation to make its products more attractive. It mostly involves the U.S. and China, but the effects are being felt worldwide. Similarly, in the Tech war, the U.S. and China are in a race to develop AGI, and whoever has the best chips will win that race, provided there is enough energy to train the models. On the geopolitical side, BRICs, NATO and the UN, which for some time where forgotten concepts, are coming back with unusual strength, perhaps with mixed results, as tension rises between major blocks. The capital wars have to do with the control of the World’s reserve currency, as we witness how the dollar is being devalued and how China is piling up gold while divesting US Treasuries, considered for decades a safe haven. Finally, we have the military wars. After the military parade in China on September 3rd, flexing muscles in front of the world, showing missiles and soldiers ready to act, using Victory day as an excuse to show the world that China is indeed a military power, the U.S. yesterday reunited every General and Admiral in the U.S. military at Quantico, for a meeting of the department of War. The U.S. Department of War was renamed and reorganized into the Department of Defense in 1947, but it’s now being brought back to the first line, signaling the U.S. is ready for war. We’re going from Defense into Offense. Temperature is rising, and the odds for conflict are going up as well.

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