End game

What’s the end game for the U.S. economy under Trump? It’s clear the president wants to stretch the U.S. hegemony for years, militarily, economically and technologically, and he wants the economy to succeed. But perhaps there is too much focus on short term gains, surely to take credit for it, sacrificing the future, where the combination of high debts and low taxes, is creating a gap that will be extremely difficult to correct. The canary in the coal mine, is the U.S. dollar. In the chart below, you can see the behavior of the Dollar index for the first 7 months of each year since 1973. 2025 is so far the third weakest year for the dollar in more than 50 years. To thrive economically and promote exports, you certainly need a weaker dollar. Historically, the U.S. government will never explicitly say so, they will always talk about a “strong dollar policy” but if we look at what they’re doing, not what they’re saying, it’s clear they want a weak dollar. There have been announcements of foreign investments, both private (SoftBank) and from other countries (Japan), but it seems there are still a lot of things to button up before those investments become a reality. And in the meantime, the debt clock keeps ticking and the dollar is reflecting it. The good news is that it’s not a disorderly weakening. The not so good news is that we’re approaching a moment where things need to start happening in the economic front, particularly with China, and internally with AI, for the whole approach to make sense. The exam date is November 3rd, 2026, when American citizens vote on the mid term elections, and Trump risks losing majority in Congress.

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