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Goldilocks economy

The latest unemployment number was published yesterday. Consensus pointed to a flat number at 3.9% but the data was better than expected at 3.7%. With this data point, the US economy has been adding jobs for 35 consecutive months. Most of the jobs were added in private education, health services, the government and hospitality. When the Fed looks at this numbers, they may conclude there is no need for rate cuts, and chairman Powell may reinforce that in his press conference on Wednesday, to manage Fed funds expectations and the forward curve. It is also important for 2024 elections: although President Biden has low ratings, from the economic point of view, the numbers for 2023 are good and the year will close strong in many fronts, which means it will be difficult for the Fed to lower rates before the election in November as it will be interpreted as helping the current administration.

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