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Growth and hikes

US gdp grew better than expected for the 2Q 2023 at 2.5%. It is remarkable that after the current #ratehike cycle, the economy continues to print good real growth. It is however, from historical perspective, a little shy from the average and the median, and the important conclusion from the table below, is that, typically, growth is strong during the hiking cycle, and it is after the cycle that recedes, precisely because of the hikes. And the effects of the hikes can last up to 2 years after the last hike. As central banks pause or even unwind their hawkish stand vs inflation, we should see an economic slowdown or even a recession.

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