US #Inflation data for the month of July will be published today. Consensus estimates circle around 8.5% YOY. June #cpi was 9.1%. If confirmed, markets may read this print as an indication that inflation has peaked, and that may be the case. The real story may be, however, in the core inflation number (ex food and energy), and particularly, analysts have put a lot of emphasis in the shelter component, or the Owners Equivalent Rent. The odds for September #fomc meeeting are in favor of 75bps hike again, and if #oer comes strong, the #ratehike probability may reach certainty, and the market may adjust accordingly. Buckle up.
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Source: BLS
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