Jobs report

Today's jobs report: the labor market is stable, but it's no longer hot.

Ahead of this morning's release, the Labor Department's own data tells a consistent story.

please take a look at the charts below:

⚖️ Openings per unemployed worker are back near 1.0. At the peak there were two openings for every job seeker. Employers no longer have to compete as hard for workers.

🔄 Turnover is low. Hiring and quitting rates are back at or below 2010s levels, while layoffs remain historically low (~1.1%). Few people are being fired, but few are being hired or switching jobs either.

The takeaway: a "low-hire, low-fire" market. It's resilient enough to avoid a sharp deterioration, but with limited momentum. For anyone looking for work, it's harder to land a new role. For investors, it's a reason to watch wage growth and the Fed's December 9 decision closely.

What matters today is less the headline payroll number and more the details: revisions, wage growth, and whether unemployment holds in its 4.1% to 4.3% range.

The Fed is still expected to hike in the December meeting, with 70% probability. The unemployment now does not send any signal to the Fed. The inflation side of the mandate is the one in charge. And the credit markets are getting to hot to be comfortable. Still 4 weeks to the last FOMC meeting g of the year.

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