First reactions

The market's first read on the midterms: not all AI trades are equal.

By 9:50 a.m. ET on Nov. 4, the S&P 500 was up 1.6%. Under the surface, the moves by industry were very uneven. You can see that in the chart below:

📈 Solar and clean energy: First Solar +11.9%, Sunrun +10.5%, Enphase +9.2%

📈 Hospitals and insurers: Centene +8.0%, HCA +7.5%, Universal Health +7.0%

📉 Defense: Lockheed -4.2%, Northrop -3.8%, RTX -3.2%

📉 AI, data centers and power: the weakest block on the board

What stands out is where the AI weakness landed. The chip designers barely moved: Nvidia -0.5%, Broadcom flat, Oracle +0.4%. The pressure hit the infrastructure layer around them:

• Vistra -9.6%

• Vertiv -8.7%

• Iren -7.2%

• Talen Energy -5.4%

• CoreWeave -5.3%

• Constellation -5.3%

Power generators, cooling and the neoclouds were all down 5% or more while the broader market rose.

The bottom line: investors aren't questioning AI demand. They're repricing the risks around building it out. Legal and regulatory headwinds will delay or pause most of the AI infrastructure projects.

That means power costs, grid and permitting policy, energy affordability and a changed regulatory outlook. Those risks fall mostly on the companies that supply electricity and physical capacity, not the ones selling the silicon.

Of course these moves can fade as new information comes in, but this positioning shows what the market thinks after the blue wave.

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