Macro is taking the wheel

We have not completed the first week of 2026, and you can already tell that this is going to be a year to remember. The geopolitical landscape is already at full steam: in Iran, there is a revolution in the streets to take down the Islamic revolution that started in the late 70’s, and in Venezuela, the U.S. Air Force is bombing strategic assets of the Maduro regime, which clearly points to a leadership and government change. And that’s only in day 3 of the year. In the chart below, you can see a risk map by Blackrock from 2 weeks ago, and the word has clearly repriced what was discounted then. In his book “the fourth turning”, Neil Howe and William Strauss talk about the four “seasons” of humanity, which repeat every 80 years aprox. Those are: (1) High, (2) awakening, (3) unraveling and (4) Crisis. Those moments define human archetypes: (1) prophet, (2) the nomad, (3) the hero and (4) the artist, and in a classical reflexivity fashion, they in turn, shape the cycles. The crisis season, the human winter, started probably with the GFC which will surely define behaviors and of course markets, and may last until the 2030’s. As a practical implication, we’re likely to see higher volatility across asset classes, and investors looking for safe havens. We need to remember that 2025 ended with high valuations, high concentration and high leverage. We need to start a period of normalization, which may not be smooth. Micro economics, will probably take the back seat and let Macro drive. We’ll see.

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