Next moves

It was no surprise to see Iran retaliation attack to Israel yesterday night. Perhaps the immediacy was somehow shocking, but not the attack itself. What are some possible the next moves? We have to major oil producers, Russia and Iran, that have been attacked, and the perception by both of them is that the U.S. supported both operations by Ukraine and Israel, either through intelligence or weapons, perhaps both. Iran is a founding member of OPEC, and Russia is a member of OPEC+, and both can push for a cut in production to increase oil price and hurt the West by increasing inflation, creating some damage, but in order to be effective, Saudi Arabia should join the cuts, and they probably won’t do it because they have just signed an agreement with the U.S. to build AI chips facilities in the kingdom. Russia will attack Ukraine and will send a message to Trump and the US. And Iran will continue its efforts in building nuclear weapons, which will force the Saudis to build nuclear weapons as well. It looks like both conflicts are ready to escalate to the next level. Is this an orchestrated move by the U.S. to lower yields in order to refinance 9 Trillions of debt? Too risky and not working so far. Is it designed to hurt China, a net oil importer, at a point of economic weakness to force the hand in trade negotiations? It can backfire and create a powerful anti-US block. Next moves will reveal each player’s strategy.

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