No deal in sight

There is still no clear sign that negatioations between Iran and the U.S. are currently underway. Trump says Iran is “begging” for a deal and Iranians say there is no deal. If you watch the price of crude oil you can follow the narrative almost to the dot. If negotiations hit the tape, oil price goes down, when they are denied it goes up. What seems to be true is that 5000 marines are already in the gulf, waiting to attack. The target seems to be Kharg island, bit perhaps they are there to make sure Hormuz reopens. The financial cost of this war is intensifying, both for the U.S. (military costs) and for the rest of the world (energy scarcity, inflation, etc). This conflict may cause a global slowdown, and potentially a recession, with an inflation component if energy prices do not normalize soon. The first quarter is about to end, and companies wil start reporting earnings as soon as next week. It will be interesting to hear from CEOs how the conflict is affecting their businesses.

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