No growth

The IMF has released its world economic outlook report where among many things, they project growth for the global economy. For advanced ones, as you can see in the chart below, the expected growth for this year and the next, is an anemic 1.6%. It’s interesting that China is not included in the group of advanced economies, being the second largest and the one with the fastest growth. But what it’s also interesting is that the IMF does not foresee any major impact from AI in global growth in 2026. Despite all the investment that major companies are injecting in data centers, chips and energy, the effects are not expected to arrive that soon. In the meantime debt continues to grow in these economies, and its net effect in terms of growth is diminishing. In the US, it now takes approximately $5 of debt to produce $1 of gdp growth, which is not sustainable, and at these growth rates we will need a much higher rate of inflation to deflate the $340Tn of global debt currently issued. Furthermore, how are the biggest multinationals going to grow at double digit rates if the world is not growing?

Want to know more? You can find all our posts at https://www.myfundamental.net/insights

#iamfundamental #soyfundamental #wealthmanagement #familyoffice #financialadvisor #financialplanning #policymistake #ratecut #stagflation