Optimism and the Fed

Optimism around an interim US-Iran peace/framework deal, potentially easing sanctions and reopening aspects of the Strait of Hormuz, has driven oil prices lower, with Brent and WTI holding or trading below $80. 2 Iranian oil supertankers appear to have cleared the U.S. blockade in Hormuz and might be on its way to its final destination. It does look like the deal might go through. They’re expected to sign it on Friday in Geneva. The Dow. Jones Industrial Average hit a new all time high yesterday. As you can see in the table below, it only took 18 days from 51,000 level. Kevin Warsh will speak to day and may rattle the market chain. Not clear yet what his take on rates and the Fed balance sheet is. SpaceX continued its strong post-IPO run, soaring again, nearing or overtaking major peers like Amazon in market cap at one point. It’s up 22% since its debut a few days ago. If the peace deal is signed we might get a relief rally, and then go back to worry about valuations and concentration risks. We’re getting frothy.

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