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The big question

As we cross the finish line for the year, big banks and Asset Managers will start to publish their outlooks and views for the new year. It is a futile exercise, but everyone reads them, because it builds consensus. One of the big themes for the new year will be wether the U.S. economy will fall into a recession or not. The table below shows all recessions since 1969 with the day calculation between the yield curve inversion and uninversion and the official start date of each recession. As you can see, each case has been different, and the dispersion of dates is big, which can accommodate our current case. The average period of yield curve inversion is 257 days, and we’re currently at 398 days, but the maximum has been 522 days. Equity markets are fighting with the 2022 highs, and the catalyst for the final push into sustained new highs or a correction, will be determined by the numbers in red in the table.

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