The epic cost of fury

The Iranian conflict has entered its second month with significant escalation involving direct US involvement alongside Israel. It has caused thousands of deaths (military and civilian) across Iran, Israel, Lebanon, and Gulf states, widespread infrastructure damage, displacement of millions, and disruptions to global energy markets thanks to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The situation remains fluid and highly escalatory, with risks of further missile exchanges, proxy involvement (Hezbollah,

Houthis, etc), and broader regional involvement. Trump has given Iran 48h since yesterday to open the Strait of Hormuz, otherwise he’s threatening with major escalation. Diplomacy is not working and the estimated direct cost to the US for the Operation Epic Fury amounts to $40-45 billion. This is where it gets tricky: The Constitution divides war powers: Congress has the power to declare war and fund the military (Article I, Section 8), while the President directs operations as Commander in Chief (Article II, Section 2). In practice, the 1973 War Powers Resolution (WPR) governs most modern conflicts. It requires the President to: (1) Notify Congress within 48 hours of introducing U.S. forces into hostilities, and (2) Limit unauthorized military action to 60 days (plus up to 30 days for safe withdrawal) unless Congress explicitly authorizes continuation via a declaration of war or an Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF). That means Trump has less than 3 weeks to end the conflict before Congress needs to get involved. On top of that any additional funds for the conflict requires congressional approval, and the pentagon is requesting $200Bn to replenish munition and cover the costs of the military operation. Trump is in a hurry, Iran is not.

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