TIC report

The latest Treasury International Capital (TIC) report was published yesterday with data as of November 2025. This monthly report tracks cross-border flows in securities, banking, and other financial assets, including foreign acquisitions of U.S. long-term securities (such as Treasuries, agency debt, corporate bonds, and equities). Foreign residents recorded a substantial net inflow of $212.0 billion in total acquisitions of long-term U.S. securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows. This is a relief for Secretary Bessent, after net outflows for the month of October. In the table below, you can see tha China, India and other BRICs countries are either selling U.S. treasuries or they’re not replenishing the maturing bonds. They’re buying gold instead. Japan, UK and Taiwan are among the notable net buyers. Japan is the most important ally when it comes to U.S. debt: $1.2Tn and increasing, while they have around $9Tn of yen denominated government debt themselves. They are basically using the Yen carry trade at massive scale, borrowing in Yen to buy dollar assets. But the yield on long term Japanese bonds is rapidly approaching the U.S. bonds, which is making U.S. bonds less attractive compared to JGBs. Both the U.S. and Japanese economies are huge hedge funds, highly levered, depending on each other to keep their economic machines running. At some point, either U.S. yields go up, or our creditors may decide to invest in something else, or simply cancel some debts on their own currency. Jubilee time?

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