Trucking’ blues

Trucking isn't collapsing overnight. It's quietly unraveling, and your next grocery bill will show it.

Trucks move nearly three-quarters of U.S. freight by weight. Almost everything on a shelf, a job site, or a factory floor got there on diesel.

Since the U.S.-Israel war on Iran began, the Strait of Hormuz has been largely shut to oil and refined products. Diesel is up more than 70% from January and hit record highs this fall, topping $6 a gallon in mid-September.

Fuel is a fifth of a carrier's operating costs, and every $1/gallon adds roughly $40 billion to the industry's annual bill. Small fleets run on thin margins and can't absorb that.

The result: at least 16 carriers filed for bankruptcy in just over a month, mostly small and mid-sized fleets, and many are liquidating rather than restructuring.

Even if the war ended tomorrow, diesel would come down slowly, and a closed fleet doesn't reopen. Less capacity means higher freight rates, and higher freight rates mean higher prices for everything.

The cost of a war 7,000 miles away gets paid at the checkout line.

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