Two worlds

Yesterday, almost simultaneously, two different worlds coexisted. One dominated my feed with joy: extra time, a golden goal, a nation celebrating. The other headline is harder to look away from: the US carried out its ninth consecutive night of strikes on Iran, following the collapse of a ceasefire reached just weeks earlier. Iran has retaliated with missile attacks reaching Jordan, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and Oman, and has renewed threats to the Strait of Hormuz, the corridor through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes daily. We’re not back to square one. It looks like both countries have crossed a red line when they decided to ignore the MoU and the peace talks and launched attacks to one another. Escalation is now the central scenario. There are many differences between both worlds, one is conceived as a “finite game”. A football final gives us 90 minutes (or 120, to be precise) of clear rules, a defined outcome, and a handshake at the end. Geopolitical escalation is an “infinite game”.It doesn’t come with a final whistle. There’s no guaranteed resolution, and the costs, human and economic, accumulate the longer it continues. It only ends when one of the parties surrenders or leaves. And the economic and social consequences can be huge. One world ended yesterday, the good one. The other, is still with us.

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