Who is going to tell us?

AI is considered by many as the new economic messiah that will come to rescue the world from years of excessive spending and debt accumulation. It’s supposed to create a new growth paradigm that abound increase productivity in such a way that combined with robots, will make the current era look like Stone Age. But any version of this story, will not happen overnight and it will not happen in a straight line. If you look at the top chart below, you can see where all the CapEx is going. There are currently more data centers planned for 2025 than in the last 15 years combined. The energy requirements to feed those data centers will be a massive 80 GW. The flip side of that is the chart below: the AI corporate adoption is flattening out. We may have reached saturation with the early adopters, and we may need the next iteration of AI applications to attract the early majority. And there lies the issue: where will the money to sustain the current plans and perhaps next years and so on, when most of it is financed with debt that have specific schedules and most individual use is still under the free tier. Is not only the construction but the energy needs that need to be satisfied on an ongoing basis, as this data centers don’t stop. There is a gap between expectations and reality, which is translated into an economic and time gaps, between expenditures and revenues. Who is going to tell us, how and when?

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