Winding down?
- Gustavo A Cano, CFA, FRM

- 1 hour ago
- 1 min read
The conflict in Iran just enter its third week. Mix signals from President Trump regarding the evolution of the war: from boots on the ground, to take control of the Kharg island, to winding down the conflict because the goals have been achieved (whatever those were). We’ll probably see a few more changes, but the fact of the matter is that even though leadership in Iran has been decimated, and major infrastructure (energy, nuclear, military) has been destroyed, no official surrender has been announced. In the meantime, the U.S. national debt has surpassed $39Tn and it took less than 4 months to add $1Tn. At this pace, we will reach $40Tn by July. And thanks to the war, perhaps sooner. Perhaps the goal is to follow th Monroe doctrine to an extreme and take control of major oil countries (Venezuela and Iran) to increase US GDP, and dilute the the debt, but it’s difficult to see how that is going to last, with such big cultural differences. Perhaps there is no plan. But the question of who will pay the US debt remains unanswered. And it affects the whole world. How can gold and silver (and perhaps Bitcoin) not be part of the solution? In which scenario will we see a strong dollar coming out of this level of indebtedness? How much value does AI need to create out of thin air to compensate for the reckless spending over the last 20 years? Is that the real reason why we’re at war?
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