In a strange combination of diplomacy and military actions, both Iran and the US talked about peace and the need to end the conflict, while bombing each other and their allies. Words don’t matter in this conflict. It’s what they do that matters, not what they say. And the thermometer of the conflict, Brent oil, is up again 8% today. After an open letter where Iran President addressed the American people reassuring Persians have no emnity to Americans and that they are simply defending themselves from the attack, Trump spoke at 9 pm EST and stated that the expects the war to wrap up in “2 or 3 weeks”, but (surprisingly) omitted the details. He stated the US will only consider a ceasefire once the Strait of Hormuz is “open, free, and clear”. Almost 5 weeks of conflict, and positions are still well apart. According to Polymarket there is now a 52% probability in favor of the Democrats to win back the senate in November. The longer the conflict persists, the higher this probability will go. And the lower Trump’s approval rating will go as well. His main concern now seems to be keeping the equity market calm. Expect more verbal interventions to massage the reality of the conflict.

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