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3 sigma event

The run in US stocks and particularly in US tech stocks since the #gfc has been incredible. The Tech sector is almost at 3 standard deviations from its 73 year average in its relative performance vs global equities. If it followed a normal distribution curve, this would be a 0.3% probability event. 3 sigma events, are usually followed by reversal to the mean phenomenon, but usually it doesn’t stop at the mean, it tipycally overshoots. It may take time, but this type of situations with excesses over the mean are usually corrected furiously. Perhaps in this case it will happen through a weakening dollar, or perhaps is simply a valuation adjustment on both ends.


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Chart source: Bank of America Research



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