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After the first cut

What happens to equity markets when the Fed cuts rates? According to history, the market trades up in anticipation of the first cut, but falls after. Analyzing the rate cycles since 1970, the S&P500 has fallen 23% on average, 213 days after the first cut. The interesting part is that if history repeats itself, and we get the first cut in June, that will put the market trough after Election Day, which means that all those that vote with their pockets (most of them) will not be happy going into the voting booths. And It can certainly accelerate the pace of rate cuts for the Fed assuming inflation doesn’t pick up.

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