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December pause

Two more data points this week that may signal higher inflation. On Wednesday the US CPI for the month of October was published and it came up as expected (2.6%) but higher than September. As you can see in the chart below, it could have been higher if it wasn’t for oil, that contributed negatively to the basket for the month. And yesterday, PPI, also for October, was published and it was hotter than expected at 2.4% (vs 2.3%) and higher than September, which tells us perhaps this inflation pickup is structural. How will this affect the future of Fed Funds and monetary policy? Futures now discount a 64% probability of a cut on December 18th, but it was at 72% prior to the inflation report. That was also influenced by the comments from Chairman Powell where he said the Fed is not on a rush to lower rates. We may get a December pause.


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